So what’s achievable in terms of numbers with my program? To determine this, we must establish some operational guidelines. To do this, we will need to establish a set of values from which to calculate our numbers. These numbers are meant as a guide to help further clarify what my program is capable of.
It is also important to point out that reality often has a much wider variety of factors affecting final outcomes than can be allowed for in the theories and guidelines of this outline of my program.
Since my program has the potential for each passenger to be seated on more than one bus as part of a single origin-to-destination trip, we must look at total potential passengers per hour or per day (total passengers) from a somewhat different point of view. Under current routing practices, where a passenger usually goes from origin-to-destination on the same bus, total passengers simply equals the total number of people who were picked up by each bus.
With my program, some people will only travel short trips within their local area and will ride on only one bus. Others will travel longer distances and will travel on two local buses. Still others will travel extended distances involving two local buses and a transfer bus.
Without the use of any scientifically accurate studies to determine what the actual average will be, and for the sake of this document, I’m going to assume that the average passenger under my program will ride on two local area buses for an average of one hour per trip, a trip being from origin-to-destination.
We are also going to use a bus which we will say just happens to be able to transport either 4 wheel chairs (all seats fold up) or 12 ambulatory people, (all seats folded down). For the purpose of determining maximum theoretical numbers, I’m going to use the higher number of 12.
In reality, transport will be a combination of ambulatory, chairs, and others with differing mobility assistance challenges. Also, reality must include the time needed to load and unload each passenger. This time would be subtracted from the amount of travel time each bus has during each half-hour loop from a Hub.
In order to allow for the benefits of my Same-Day Space-Available program, there needs to be goals for peek and off-peek hours in terms of how many passengers would be scheduled for each Local Area, Extended Local Area, and the ongoing Special Event routes used in places like shopping malls. My suggestion is to pre-schedule 25% occupancy per bus during off-peek hours and 75% occupancy during peek hours.
Off-peek hours would be the time most available to space-available riders and leaving 25% of maximum occupancy available during peek hours allows room for adjusting for downed buses or other unplanned surprises. Because Transfer Buses do not pick up or drop off except at Hubs, they can be scheduled at higher occupancy rates as is reasonably achievable while still leaving room for adding Space-Available customers. I would suggest that 75% pre-scheduled occupancy on transfer buses be the maximum during peak times.
So having established these variables, and having made the point that reality will most likely fall somewhat short of these “idealistic goals and guidelines” here are the numbers. No matter how many buses each passenger needs to ride to get from origin-to-destination, each passenger can be seated on only one bus at a time. Therefore, we will start from that point.
The buses in our example can seat up to 12 people. We are using an average of one-hour riding time per passenger. And we are scheduling at a peek-time occupancy of 9 passengers. Therefore if the driver could be scheduled so as to sustain an average of 9 passengers per hour for 8 hours of driving, that one driver would transport 72 different passengers. For every 10 drivers scheduled in this same way, 720 different passengers would be transported.
Properly marketed my Same-Day Space-Available program provides for the potential of increasing the average number of passengers per hour transported during off-peek hours. When first implemented into an area, service providers should not expect a large response to my Same-Day Space-Available program on the basis that para-transit customers are currently not use to being able to plan their travels on any kind of spontaneous same-day basis, and fixed route passengers are not use to having to pre-schedule any of their trips.
Let’s define one more number to use. We are going to define the metro area that our transit program operates in as being large enough to justify the equivalent of 100 eight-hour routes. Using 25% to 75% occupancy guidelines, that would be from 300 to 900 passengers per hour, or 2,400 to 7,200 passengers per day.
Here’s the math without the word problem, which does get in some people’s way. (X means multiply in the example problems below).
# of routes X # of seats per bus X % occupancy X hours per route = passengers per day
100 X 12 X 25% X 8 = 2,400
100 X 12 X 75% X 8 = 7,200
If a current para-transit program operates at about 2 passengers per hour (such as a large county wide operation) and has 100 routes operating on busy weekdays, each route an average of 8 hours long, that program’s current numbers would look like this:
# of routes X # of seats per bus X % occupancy X hours per route = passengers per day
100 X 12 X (2 per hour) X 8 = 1,600
As I stated earlier in this section, reality means that you will have passengers that require extra time to load and unload from a bus for various reasons. These passengers deserve to be respected and the ADA says they have a right to be transported.
So even if your area only reached an average of 50% occupancy on the high side, 100 routes 8 hours long each would still transport close to 5,000 passengers per day. And that means each bus would load and unload an average of only 3 passengers per half hour. With travel distances and times greatly reduced, performing and average of three stops per half hour should be very do-able.
Another reason that three passengers per half-hour is a very do-able number is realized when you remind yourself that your drivers will be picking up and delivering to every address that is within the same small local area they are servicing.
If the travel patterns of the average passenger within your program’s service area were such that you could sustain an average of 9 unique passengers per half hour, then you’d be capable of 18 per hour. 18 x 100 x 8 = 14,400 per day.
What’s actually achievable in your area will only be known by a fact-based study of where your passengers live, where they regularly go to, and how often. This kind of study would have to include an estimate of where each Hub would be and how many buses and routes you would have operating at any one time.
If your area is currently spread out, with lots of dead ends, and “no outlet” developments, you’re most likely not getting a very high passenger per hour average. A county wide transit program operating under these conditions with passengers going from one end of the county to the other may only realize an average of 1.5 to 2 passengers per hour per driver currently. Under my program that same area should be able to achieve at least double that number if not higher.
The beginning and end of each service day are going to be very slow periods. The bulk of your passengers will be during the mid parts of the day, late morning through early evening. This part will not change with a switch from your current program to mine. What will change is the number of buses (and drivers) required to transport the same number of passengers.
I won’t blame anyone who is initially skeptical about what I’m claiming for potential results of my program. If it weren’t for my “vision” like image of what my program can do, I wouldn’t believe any of this myself.
I challenge you to allow yourself to give my program a serious look. Run some tabletop scenarios with matches for people, matchboxes for buses and 3x5 cards for hubs. Allow yourself to visualize my program in action. Do you accept my challenge? Or are you going to quickly doubt the way those who doubted the Wright brothers and the airplane, or NASA putting a man on the moon.
I dare you to share my vision with me. Once you share the vision of my program, or even enough to believe in its potential, then allow yourself also to share my reason, to help those passengers who depend on public funded and para-transit service to achieve a much better standard of travel opportunities than they currently have.
Thank you for taking time to read my program. Obviously, if I didn't believe in my own program, I would not have published it for others to read and ponder on.
An Opinion Article by Dave Kemper
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It has been said that: "One definition of insanity is to do the same thing, the same way, over and over and over again, each time expecting to achieve a different result."
Therefore, we must either CHANGE the way we live, or we bind our future to our past as if with CHAINS.
"I do not consider myself to be better than anyone else. But I do believe in exercising my right to not stay stupid."
David W. Kemper, Author
© Copyright 2014 by David William Kemper. All right reserved
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